Why We Built This
We built the firm we wish existed, after living the cost of not having it.
Primary customer truth, owned by the decision-maker.
Before Crossover, I spent fifteen years in institutional research, as a partner at a firm serving more than 200 of the largest TMT hedge funds. I ran the research desk across a 750+ company coverage universe. That seat taught me what actually separates the businesses that compound from the ones that quietly come apart: the truth lives with the customer, and almost no one goes and gets it cleanly.
I also learned what the wrong owner can do to a good business. We tried to sell our own firm three times, and watched decisions made far from the customer erode something that was genuinely great. I have sat in the seat our clients sit in, on the days the evidence that mattered most simply was not there.
Crossover is the platform I wish I'd had: independent, primary Voice of Customer evidence, owned by the people making the decision and never manufactured to win a fee. One research engine, deployed on every side of the deal, so every party works from the same verified truth.
At Crossover we love what we do and we do not like losing.
The Man in the Arena
Where rigor meets execution
Christopher turns high-stakes operating discipline into research delivery clients can rely on without hesitation.
Our standard was set in an environment where the margin for error was lives, not slide edits. Our COO, Christopher Lynas, spent eight years as a Naval Flight Officer flying the P-8 Poseidon and leading 10-person crews on complex surveillance missions worldwide. That work demanded disciplined preparation, flawless execution, and a culture where "close enough" is not acceptable.
We apply that ethos to every deal.
Our work is human-in-the-loop by design. AI runs the survey-to-insight pipeline, and the Crossover research team governs each output, validates edge cases, adds sector nuance, and ties every conclusion back to the investment case. When we run Voice of Customer or market work, every call, every data point, and every conclusion is designed to stand up in IC, with operating partners, and under third-party diligence. We do not hide behind "AI did it." We show our work, source our insight in house from our own proprietary infrastructure and networks, and build reports that your team can interrogate line by line, directly linked to the underlying verified data.
The result is simple: when our work shows up in diligence, it holds. No consultant spin. Execution is not a promise here. It is the operating standard.
How We Got Here
Three years. Not designed. Compounded into infrastructure.
Crossover is built on 15 years of public and private TMT research relationships with the top 200 funds, compounding an expert network and thousands of proprietary conversations into a differentiated insight engine.
One study served both sides. J.P. Morgan sell-side, General Atlantic buy-side, one evidence base.
The Core 9 KPIs, scored across over 100 studies and 16,000+ interviews. Every new study reads against every one; a competitor starts at zero.
Public Track Record
The calls, on the record.
High-conviction theses published in public — time-stamped and held to account. The same research discipline that powers every engagement.
In August I wrote a thesis I never published. The funds I was warning were key Crossover Research clients, so I stayed quiet. Since then, software multiples are down 50%+ — Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe, and Workday all off 40% from their highs.
Updated performance review of my Twitter "Deep Dives." The thesis behind the majority of these ideas remains unchanged. Average performance across all ideas = +55%.
Sentiment remains universally upbeat (consistent with the read inflection in early January) as AIP traction fuels commercial-segment outperformance — +68% y/y in 1Q24 ex-SPAC revenue. The company continues to lean heavily into AIP bootcamps as a GTM motion.
Sentiment on the memory space is improving, albeit slowly, from prior reads over the years. Some buyers are playing offense — they believe pricing has bottomed and should rise from here. Anticipate modest improvements in DRAM and NAND Flash pricing between now and mid-2024, with accelerated profitability from there as general-purpose server demand accelerates. The technical roadmap has shown good strength — layer count on DRAM and Flash, plus HBM plans for 2024. Fab reshoring positions the company well, but it must execute on the roadmap.
The thesis we laid out last year — better inventory depletion rates, a faster RFID market recovery, and emerging use cases beyond retail — materialized as expected. During our initial fieldwork, the RFID implementation firms we spoke with indicated IC demand was inflecting off a trough in 3Q23 and positioned for a substantial pickup in 4Q23: "1H23 very bearish, 3Q23 neutral, 4Q23 bullish, CY24 very bullish." Since the report, the stock has drastically outperformed peers. Early innings of tag penetration, Walmart supplier mandates, expansion into new verticals, and the new M800 platform all support a compelling long-term growth story.
Updated V2 "Best of Best" list. Based on underlying business fundamentals, channel checks, and technical KPIs — companies I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis. Some are consensus longs, others overlooked. Spanning software, internet, semis, payments, consumer, and media.
Our backgrounds
